Man vs AI: Predicting the 2026 Formula 1 season

Jonathan Victoria • 27 Feb 2026 Features

It’s lights out and away we go into some potentially questionable predictions…

Man vs AI: Predicting the 2026 Formula 1 season

Strap in, charge your turbo-hybrid engines and switch the mode to Overtake, because we’re about to predict the beautifully unhinged chaos that is sure to be the 2026 Formula 1 season.

New regulations are landing like a safety car at the worst possible moment, engineers are whispering “trust the data” through gritted teeth, and at least one team principal dramatically pretending they “saw it coming all along.”

This isn’t calm, spreadsheet-friendly forecasting - this is flat-out, lights-out speculation with sparks flying into Turn 1. Expect shock podiums, heartbreak in the pit lane, and a title fight that swings harder than a street circuit kerb.

Welcome to the 2026 F1 season, and to our 2026 F1 season predictions - where nothing is certain, and absolutely everything is on the table.

Drivers’ champion

Johnnie

We’ve got to start here as there's a chance that this could either be a record-breaking year or the first time since 2009 and 2010 where two new champions are crowned in successive seasons.

From the moment the new regs were announced up until now and even still going into the first race, Mercedes have been tipped as the front-runners - and for good reason. They bossed the last engine regs era, so there’s good reason as to why they’re favoured.

Many have George Russell picking up his first championship title this year and it’s justified. I personally have said ever since he made it to F1 he’s a future champion.

But I don't think it'll be yet. You see, I'm a fool, a believer, a sadist if you will. I’m not a full-blown Ferrari fan but damn it all I believe this year! I believe they’ve got it spot on, and I believe they’ll deliver Sir Lewis Hamilton that eighth title he so deserves (ninth really but I shan’t digress).

It’s not just about the team delivering, though. The last era did not suit Lewis’ driving style one bit. During his career, he’s shown that when it’s an aerodynamic-focused era, he struggles, but when it goes back to being about engine power, he thrives.

There’s been several drivers already talking about how the way these cars will need to be driven suits him best, have tipped him as an early favourite - even his 2021 rival Verstappen said he was impressed by how he looked on track early on.

I got into Formula 1 because of Lewis Hamilton and I will always be a Lewis Hamilton supporter. I believe he’ll do it this year.

ChatGPT

Everyone’s staring at Mercedes. Some are dreaming of a Hamilton fairy-tale. Others are pencilling in Russell as the logical heir. Ferrari believers are lighting candles and McLaren fans are whispering about “their cycle.”

I’m going the other way.

My 2026 Drivers’ Champion is Max Verstappen - but not in a cruise-control, 2023 dominant-season way. I’m talking about a gritty, drag-the-car-to-the-title kind of season.

Regulation resets reward adaptability, and nobody recalibrates faster than Verstappen. He doesn’t need perfection; he just needs something that rotates and responds. Even if Red Bull don’t start as the outright quickest, they’re too sharp not to unlock performance as the season develops.

And if 2026 becomes a four-team knife fight - split wins, unpredictable podiums, momentum swings - that’s exactly where Verstappen thrives. No politics, no sentiment, just ruthless efficiency on Sundays.

While others manage expectations, legacy narratives, or intra-team tension, he’ll simply be stacking points.

Not the romantic pick.
Not the nostalgic one.

The cold-blooded one. Max Verstappen.

Constructors’ champion

Johnnie

This could be a close fight indeed. You have four teams at the front, each with very strong line-ups.

Mercedes has George Russell in his prime right now and a young and promising Kimi Antonelli, who I think will take a big step forward this year. If the car is at the very front, they both could very well deliver.

Red Bull is Verstappen, that’s just cold hard facts. Last season he almost did exactly what ChatGPT said he might do this year, but now he has a new teammate in Isack Hadjar who steps in for the new regs, so hopefully he won’t feel the second seat curse and help deliver.

McLaren are the defending back-to-back champions and very well may make it a three-peat. Lando Norris now has no pressure having won his first championship, while Oscar Piastri will no doubt be driving with the intent to show up his teammate for the first time this year, which sounds odd but obviously would help in the points total.

But like I said; I believe Ferrari have got the regs right and can deliver Hamilton his championship. And with Charles Leclerc also being one of the best drivers on the grid, I think they have the best chance of bringing the Prancing Horse back to the very top.

ChatGPT

Constructors is where I’m swerving again, because while the Drivers’ title can be won by one generational menace operating at 10.5/10, the Constructors’ is about depth. About harmony. About two cars scoring when it matters.

And that’s why I’m backing McLaren.

Here’s the logic: new regulations tend to reward the teams that have built momentum before the reset. McLaren have spent the past few seasons sharpening operations, improving development speed, and - crucially - eliminating their “start slow, recover later” habit. If they hit the ground running in 2026, they won’t just be quick - they’ll be stable.

And stability wins Constructors’.

If they’ve got two drivers operating at a consistently high level (no civil war, no philosophical split in car direction), that steady 2-4-3-5 drumbeat of points adds up frighteningly fast over 24 races. Especially if Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull are busy trading wins and occasionally tripping over each other.

Constructors’ titles aren’t always won by the flashiest team. They’re won by the one that avoids the double DNFs. The botched pit stops. The intra-team explosions.

So while others fight for headlines, McLaren quietly stack points.

My pick: McLaren. Orange confetti. Quiet efficiency. Championship number nine.

Biggest flop

Johnnie

I believe we’re already seeing the biggest flop.

After all the talk of upgrading facilities and operations, acquiring some top names behind the scenes to help bring honour and glory back to the Silverstone-based side, Aston Martin dropped an all-time stinker of a pre-season.

They started by fumbling their car reveal. Then they were late for the Barcelona shakedown. And then over two weeks of testing in Bahrain, they were abysmal. Random breakdowns, Lance Stroll spinning out and for once through no fault of his own but because of an engine failure, all culminating in just six untimed laps on the final day.

There is no question about it that after all the talk and hyping themselves up, Aston Martin head into the new regs as a major disappointment.

ChatGPT

Biggest flop of 2026?

Mercedes.

And not in a “they’re suddenly midfield” disasterclass way. I’m talking about expectation versus reality.

They’ve been tipped as the regulation-era masters. Again. The smart money. The safe bet. The “they always nail engine resets” narrative. Which is exactly why the fall, even if it’s only from P1 expectations to P3 reality, would feel seismic.

Imagine this: the power unit is strong, but not dominant. The aero concept is good, but not revolutionary. They’re quick, just not quite quick enough. A couple of wins early doors, then development stalls while Ferrari or Red Bull find a breakthrough.

Suddenly the team that was supposed to control the era is chasing it.

And if that happens? The spotlight intensifies. Russell’s title favourite tag becomes weight. Every strategy call gets dissected. Every upgrade gets overanalysed. “Have they lost their edge?” becomes the paddock whisper.

They won’t be bad, but if you start the year as overwhelming favourites and end it as “best of the rest,” that’s a flop in F1 terms.

2026’s biggest disappointment won’t be a backmarker. It’ll be the team that was supposed to lead the revolution.

Biggest surprise

Johnnie

I have intentionally gone to the biggest flop first before going into the biggest surprise because of my pick. You ready for it?...

ASTON MARTIN.

That’s right. Aston Martin will be both the biggest flop AND the biggest surprise.

“But how can that be?!” I hear you cry. It’s simple:

Aston had a disastrous two weeks in Bahrain for testing, but not because of car design but because of the new Honda engine. While the focus was on the fact that the car can’t operate at the same levels as the others, everyone looked over all the signature Adrian Newey features of the car that could set them apart.

Now, I’m not the most technical person. I couldn’t look at the car and notice what’s different and how it could be better than the competition.

But I listen to the experts when they say what looks good/differs from the rest. And with a whole year to conceptualise, I believe Newey will have pieces already on the car that will make a difference once the engine is sorted out.

And then there’s the upgrades throughout the year, something which Aston haven’t been historically great at. Under Newey’s direction, I think things could be different now.

While I don’t think they’ll make a massive jump to the very front this year (although that’s not off the cards for the following years of the regs), I think there’s potentially of Aston doing like McLaren did in 2023, spending the first half of the year at the back then making a massive leap forward at some point in the year and start competing for podiums.

ChatGPT

Oscar Piastri - not just in the fight, but properly shaping it.

Last year was his introduction to the championship conversation. This year could be the one where that experience becomes weaponised.

Being in a title scrap changes a driver. You learn when to attack and when to bank points. You learn how to survive the triple-headers. You learn that finishing P3 on a bad weekend can matter more than sending it for a risky win. Piastri got that education already - and that’s invaluable heading into a fresh regulation era.

So while I still have Verstappen as my pick for the crown, I think Piastri is the one who makes him earn every single point of it.

If McLaren hands him a consistently quick car, his composure becomes a championship-level asset. No emotional swings. No wasted Sundays. Just relentless accumulation. And this time, when we get to Abu Dhabi, it won’t feel like he’s happy to be there.

Maybe Verstappen just edges it. But if 2026 goes to the wire, don’t be surprised if Piastri is the one standing right there, gloves off, ready to take it.

Quick-fire categories

Alright, so those were the major categories, but now I want to look at some small predictions, things that don’t require much thought, just emotion.

Most wins

Johnnie - Charles Leclerc, 6 wins

I reckon Leclerc picks up the most wins, but also more DNFs than the other title contenders.

ChatGPT - Max Verstappen, 8 wins

If it’s chaos at the top, he’s still the most likely to convert half-chances into wins.

Most pole positions

Johnnie - George Russell & Charles Leclerc, 8 poles

Two of the fastest guys on the grid on Saturday’s, both with a car that can put it on pole. Hamilton and Verstappen will test them at times, but more often than not pole will be contested between these two.

ChatGPT - Charles Leclerc, 9 poles.

Over one lap, when the car’s alive, he’s still the sharpest qualifier on the grid.